# Public evidence statistics (canonical)

Use these figures in manifesto, pitch materials, and the website. When numbers change (new ADR release, paper revision), update this file and `web/neocrates-frontend/src/lib/evidence-stats.ts` together.

## Mobility (education rank)

**Measure:** Bottom-half upward mobility — expected national education rank (0–100) of a son whose father is in the bottom half of the education distribution. **50 = full equality of opportunity** (birth does not predict rank).

| Geography | Value | Cohort / note |
|-----------|-------|----------------|
| India | ~38 | Sons born ~1980–85 (national) |
| United States | ~42 | Same measure (benchmark) |
| Denmark | ~47 | Same measure (benchmark) |

Mobility at the bottom has been **low and largely flat** across decades in India (same source).

**Primary source:** Asher, S., Novosad, P., & Rafkin, C. (2024). *Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups.* American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 16(2), 66–98. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20210686

**Denmark benchmark (map):** http://paulnovosad.com/mobility-india.html

### Retired figures (do not use)

- **0.45 “parent–child correlation”** — not the paper’s headline bounded estimate; superseded by bottom-half mobility above.
- **4% Bihar bottom-to-top quintile / 12% Denmark** — not verified against the AEJ paper; superseded by the education-rank measure above.

## Political finance (ADR)

| Stat | Value | Note |
|------|-------|------|
| Crorepati Lok Sabha winners | **93%** | Self-sworn affidavits; family assets over ₹1 crore (2024 general election) |

**Source:** ADR analysis, reported in *The Hindu*, 6 June 2024: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/at-least-93-of-lok-sabha-poll-winners-are-crorepatis-adr-analysis/article68258651.ece

### Retired figures (do not use)

- **67% crorepati MPs** — outdated; use **93%** for 2024 winners per ADR coverage above.

## Qualitative claims (no single “0” stat)

- No major party publishes **quantified, binding mobility targets** in manifestos — frame as structural “unmeasured outcomes,” not a headlined integer unless you publish an audit methodology.

## Website implementation

Single source in code: `web/neocrates-frontend/src/lib/evidence-stats.ts`  
UI: `web/neocrates-frontend/src/components/sections/EvidenceStatsBar.tsx`